208 
FXUS63 KMKX 070902
AFDMKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
300 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2003

FCST FOCUS IS ON RESOLVING SAT PCPN EVENT.

IN SHORT RUN ONGOING SYS ACRS UPR MIDWEST DRIVEN BY STG UPR JET.
EVIDENCE OF VORT MAX NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGAERY ACRS NRN MN
HEADING INTO UP/LAKE SUPR RGN. MAINLY A MRNG EVENT...WITH MOSTLY
MID LVL RTNS ATTM...THO WILL OPT TO KEEP SML POP FOR JUST MRNG
HRS. BEST ENHANCEMENT FOCUSING IN VCNTY OF JET/VORT ACRS MN/NRN WI.
SECONDARY ENHANCEMENT ACRS ERN IA COULD CLIP SE CRNR. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH PTYPE AS BUFFY SOUNDINGS SHOW LACK OF ICE CRYSTALS.

EXPECT A BREAK IN THINGS TNGT...BUT STILL EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THE FAST WRLY FLO.

SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES TO RESOLVE BEFORE SAT...HOWEVER ALL SEEM TO
LOCK ONTO APPCHG 120KT H3 JET PROGGD TO ENHANCE DVRG ACRS WI ON SAT.
ATTM ETA SFC LO EVOLUTION/TRACK FAVORS HEAVIER AND MORE SRN PLACED
QPF OFFERED BY AVN. MEANWHILE THE AVN SFC TRACK WOULD TEND TO FAVOR
THE MORE NRN PLACED ETA QPF. INGREDIENTS APPCH FAVORS AVN QPF MORE SO
THAN ETA QPF. THIS DUE TO PVQ AND PVF SHOWING BULLSEYES IN SE CRNR
COINCINDING WITH REGN OF BEST MOIST. ETA QPF NOT MAKING MUCH
SENSE GIVEN PLACEMENT OF THESE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS. MIXING RATIOS
AT H8 LEVEL ARND 4-5 G/KG. INSTABILITY SHOWS SOME DEPTH AS IT SHOWS
UP AT H8...H7 AND H6. CROSS SECTION FROM LSE TO MKE ALSO REVEALS SOME
CSI POTENTIAL. FEEL CONFIDENT TO RAISE POPS INTO LIKELY CAT. H8 TEMP
REGIME ALONG WITH BUFFY SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A POTENTIAL MIX OF PCPN...
ESP IN SRN PTN CWA...HOWEVER CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY
CHANGEOVER ANY RAIN TO SNOW. WILL LEAVE EITHER/OR WORDING FOR PCPN
TYPE ATTM...PER GOING FCST.

HUGE TEMP DIFF BETWEEN MOS GUID FOR SAT NGT. 2M TEMPS MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLE AVN MOS. WILL STEER A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE COLD NUMBERS.
OF COURSE DEGREE OF CLRG AND WINDS WILL HAVE A SAY IN EVENTUAL
DROPOFF...BUT H8 TEMPS SHOW A VRY COLD AMS...SO WILL STEER TEMPS
DOWNWARD A BIT TO A COMPROMISE BETWEN AVN AND ETA MOS.

.MKX...NONE.

$$