FXUS63 KMKX 080939
AFDMKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
335 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2003

FCST FOCUS ON PCPN TYPE AND SNOW AMOUNTS TODAY.

CONFIDENCE HIGH FOR PCPN CHCS. TIGHT H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH
DECENT DVRG FROM RRQ OF ULJ WILL BE THE PRIMARY PLAYERS WITH THIS
SYS. INGREDIENTS TECH OFFERS SOME PVU ABV LOWER LEVEL Q VECTOR
CONVERGENCE...HOWEVER PVU DOES NOT LOOK AS IMPRESSIVE AS LAST
NIGHTS RUN. ONE THING THAT HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT FROM LAST NIGHT
IS THE CSI POTENTIAL THAT APPEARS ON THE CROSS SECTION PLOTS. H8
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IS STG. MODELS ALSO NOT QUITE AS WARM AS LAST
NIGHTS RUN...IMPLYING LESS OF A WARM AIR SURGE INTO CWA...HOWEVER
TEMP PROFILE WOULD STILL IMPLY A PERIOD OF IP POSSIBLE ACRS SRN
CWA. THIS IN LINE WITH GOING FCST. MIXG RATIOS PROGGD INTO THE 2 TO 3
G/KG RANGE IN THE H7 TO H8 LYR. EXPECTING A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION
EVENT...6HRS OR LESS. ONGOING RADAR ANIM CONFIRMS THIS SHOWING THE
LONGEST DURATION SNOWS TICKETED FOR NRN WI. WITH ANTICIAPTED QPF FROM
MODELS...APPLYING CG TECH...AND POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION...FEEL IT
BEST TO NOT LOWER GOING AMOUNTS...AND KEEP THE 4 INCH AMOUNTS INTACT
ACROSS THE NORTH TO COVER ANY BANDING IN THE COLDEST AMS THAT COULD
RESULT FROM CSI THAT IS REALIZED FROM STG FRONTAL FORCING.

MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY FOR MON WITH ETA BRINGING A WAVE THRU WITH
ASSOC VV/PCPN. AVN KEEPS MON DRY AS DOES CANADIAN MODEL. WILL STICK
WITH GOING FCST AND LEAVE A SML CHC IN THE SRN PTN CWA FOR NOW.

LEANED TOWARDS COLDER ETA/AVN MOS GUID NUMBERS FOR SUN WITH VRY COLD
AMS IN PLACE...HOWEVER MAR SUN STG SO BUMPED A SMIDGE TOWARDS NGM
MOS.

FURTHER INTO EXTENDED...STILL SHOWING A WRMUP FOR END OF NEXT WEEK.

.MKX...NONE.

$$