Photo by Jim Gehrz (Milwaukee Journal Sentinel)

Traditional Forecast Techniques

This section begins with a summary of traditional forecast techniques. These techniques are largely empirical relationships established from observations of consistent patterns in the development of weather systems. I will discuss which ingredients are included and which are omitted in some of the popular techniques, and present a few ideas to incorporate the missing ingredients. I welcome any comments throughout the season regarding your experience with the methods, when they work, when they don't, and what synoptic or dynamical processes you associate with their veracity.

Ingredients Table Summary

Synoptic ClimatologyCookGarciaMagicLEMO
Forcing for Ascent No No LtF Yes No
Instability No No No No No
Moisture No No Yes LtF No
Temperature No Yes No Yes No
Efficiency* No No No No No

* Note: any empirical technique might include efficiency mechanisms indirectly.